Mullis predicts less snow, more ice
Originally published: Sep. 16, 2011
Last modified: Sep. 16, 2011
Last modified: Sep. 16, 2011
Jesse Campbell
Joe Mullis has issued his forecast: Break out your parka and scarves because this winter could be one to remember.
After once again watching Mother Nature's ominous signs unfold around him, Ashe County's own winter weather prognosticator is telling High Country residents to brace for a colder, icier winter than usual.
For as long as he can remember, Mullis has turned to his natural environment to see what the winter has planned for the Blue Ridge Mountains and lately the results haven't been too encouraging for milder weather lovers.
It is a time-honored tradition that was passed down to Mullis by his mother, and his mother's mother, and so on. It is a lineage of forecasting taught by his ancestors who picked up the craft from the early settlers of the region and the Native Americans.
“It was learned by the real mountaineers,” says Mullis.
He follows a list of indicators, but one of the more telling practices is counting the number of August fogs to determine how many snows are on the way this winter. Each morning, Mullis drags himself out of a warm, comfortable bed to find his place at the same spot where he has counted fogs since his mother passed along the family tradition.
For each fog he counts, he drops a bean into a canning jar: a small bean for each smaller, wispier fog and larger beans for the thick, blanketing mists that engulf the mountains' valley.
Each big bean, Mullis explains, represents a large snow (more than four inches) and smaller beans denote the smaller size variety, which he said are the events that leave just enough of the white stuff on the ground to track a rabbit.
After counting the number of fogs this August, Mullis claims Ashe, particularly the Creston area, can expect five big snows and seven smaller snows.
“A couple of the big snows could be the big, wet fluffy snows that most people really enjoy seeing,” said Mullis, who is also an avid outdoorsman.
Although some may jeer at Mullis's forecast, his accuracy has been almost impeccable. For the past two years, he has missed the number of snows only once each time for 90 percent accuracy. For the third straight year, Mullis is also predicting a Black Squirrel Winter.
Along with a multitude of other signs Mullis records in forecasting the upcoming winter, Mullis says black squirrel sightings across the High Country are the most telling of what to expect from Mother Nature.
Mullis said the appearance of the animal is synonymous with colder, harsher winters for the area.Until 2009, Mullis had never seen a black squirrel and his mother, who was well into her 80s, had not either.
“The Native Americans call it the winter of sorrows,” said Mullis in regards to black squirrel sightings of centuries past.
Although his predicted 12 snows pale in comparison to last year's 17 forecasted, Mullis is sensing a noticeably colder and icier winter accompanied with wide scale power outages.
“People need to stock up on extra fire wood and portable power,” said Mullis, who begins studying the natural signs of the approaching winter in early spring, many times while fresh blankets of snow still cover the ground.
“I won't say temperatures will be below zero all the time, but we will definitely have colder weather than last winter,” said Mullis.
JOE MULLIS SIGNS
• Where bees build their nests: This year, Mullis has observed bees building larger, thicker nests in the ground, which he says suggests colder weather.
• Black squirrel sightings: To date, Mullis has been presented with 164 black squirrel pictures from winter weather watchdogs across the High Country and Tennessee.
• How the grass lies: If the blades of grass twist and intertwine with each other, this is usually a sign of a colder than usual winter as the interloping locks create a natural shelter for small animals.
After once again watching Mother Nature's ominous signs unfold around him, Ashe County's own winter weather prognosticator is telling High Country residents to brace for a colder, icier winter than usual.
For as long as he can remember, Mullis has turned to his natural environment to see what the winter has planned for the Blue Ridge Mountains and lately the results haven't been too encouraging for milder weather lovers.
It is a time-honored tradition that was passed down to Mullis by his mother, and his mother's mother, and so on. It is a lineage of forecasting taught by his ancestors who picked up the craft from the early settlers of the region and the Native Americans.
“It was learned by the real mountaineers,” says Mullis.
He follows a list of indicators, but one of the more telling practices is counting the number of August fogs to determine how many snows are on the way this winter. Each morning, Mullis drags himself out of a warm, comfortable bed to find his place at the same spot where he has counted fogs since his mother passed along the family tradition.
For each fog he counts, he drops a bean into a canning jar: a small bean for each smaller, wispier fog and larger beans for the thick, blanketing mists that engulf the mountains' valley.
Each big bean, Mullis explains, represents a large snow (more than four inches) and smaller beans denote the smaller size variety, which he said are the events that leave just enough of the white stuff on the ground to track a rabbit.
After counting the number of fogs this August, Mullis claims Ashe, particularly the Creston area, can expect five big snows and seven smaller snows.
“A couple of the big snows could be the big, wet fluffy snows that most people really enjoy seeing,” said Mullis, who is also an avid outdoorsman.
Although some may jeer at Mullis's forecast, his accuracy has been almost impeccable. For the past two years, he has missed the number of snows only once each time for 90 percent accuracy. For the third straight year, Mullis is also predicting a Black Squirrel Winter.
Along with a multitude of other signs Mullis records in forecasting the upcoming winter, Mullis says black squirrel sightings across the High Country are the most telling of what to expect from Mother Nature.
Mullis said the appearance of the animal is synonymous with colder, harsher winters for the area.Until 2009, Mullis had never seen a black squirrel and his mother, who was well into her 80s, had not either.
“The Native Americans call it the winter of sorrows,” said Mullis in regards to black squirrel sightings of centuries past.
Although his predicted 12 snows pale in comparison to last year's 17 forecasted, Mullis is sensing a noticeably colder and icier winter accompanied with wide scale power outages.
“People need to stock up on extra fire wood and portable power,” said Mullis, who begins studying the natural signs of the approaching winter in early spring, many times while fresh blankets of snow still cover the ground.
“I won't say temperatures will be below zero all the time, but we will definitely have colder weather than last winter,” said Mullis.
JOE MULLIS SIGNS
• Where bees build their nests: This year, Mullis has observed bees building larger, thicker nests in the ground, which he says suggests colder weather.
• Black squirrel sightings: To date, Mullis has been presented with 164 black squirrel pictures from winter weather watchdogs across the High Country and Tennessee.
• How the grass lies: If the blades of grass twist and intertwine with each other, this is usually a sign of a colder than usual winter as the interloping locks create a natural shelter for small animals.